Bitcoin Nears Major Low as Elliott Wave and Momentum Divergences Signal Reversal

Fifth Wave Complete? Watch the Divergences

According to technical analysis flagged by Bitcoin News, the Elliott Wave structure suggests Bitcoin may have finished its final fifth-wave decline — the terminal move in a corrective sequence. Here's the mechanical trigger traders are eyeing: daily MACD and RSI are both forming positive divergences against price. That means price made a lower low, but the momentum indicators printed a higher low. In plain terms, selling pressure is exhausting itself.

This is the kind of setup that tempts every bottom-fisher in the room. And it should — bullish divergences at the end of a fifth wave have historically preceded meaningful reversals. But "meaningful" doesn't mean "immediate," and "historically" doesn't mean "guaranteed." You need confirmation, not hope.

Ethereum's Death Cross Tells a Different Story

While Bitcoin flirts with a reversal signal, Ethereum just confirmed a death cross on its weekly chart — the 50-week moving average slicing below the 200-week. Daily Forex notes this bearish signal has historically preceded significant price declines in ETH. If you're trading altcoin exposure against a potential BTC bounce, understand you're swimming against a different current. ETH's structure is not Bitcoin's structure right now. Treat them as separate setups, or you'll get chopped up managing one trade with another pair's thesis.

Institutional Supply Overhang: $1.25 Billion in BTC

Here's the wildcard nobody's charting cleanly yet. Coinfomania reports a major strategy firm is planning to sell $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. No specifics on timeline or execution method, but that kind of supply hitting the book — whether OTC or on-exchange — creates a ceiling. If you're positioning long on the Elliott Wave completion thesis, factor this into your risk model. A completed wave count means nothing if a nine-figure seller front-runs your breakout.

Your Defensive Playbook

If the fifth-wave completion is legitimate, your entry isn't here — it's on confirmation. Wait for a daily close above the prior fourth-wave high (that's the invalidation zone for the bearish count). Until then, the divergence is a signal to watch, not a green light to bid.

Where the trade is wrong: A daily close below the recent swing low kills the fifth-wave thesis entirely. If that happens, you're not in a reversal — you're in a continuation pattern that hasn't bottomed yet. Set your stop there, not somewhere comfortable. Capital preservation isn't optional in this tape.