Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: TD Sequential Sell Signal and Weak August History Raise Pullback Risks

Add Glassnode data highlighted by CoinMarketCap showing funding rates on perpetual futures have slid to their lowest since 2023 even as price grinds higher, and you have a setup that punishes sloppy longs. The Market Periodical reported on July 31 that BTC held near $64,000 while U.S. spot ETFs absorbed $233.1 million in a single session, the strongest intake in three weeks — a divergence between fund demand and spot momentum that deserves your full attention.

The Setup: Crowded Longs in a Compressed Range

You're staring at a market where buyers have failed twice at the same resistance zone. Trader That Martini Guy flagged $65,700 as the level that must flip into support; until that happens, every push higher reads like a stop hunt waiting to happen. CoinGecko's seven-day range confirms the squeeze: BTC peaked near $65,745, bottomed around $62,785, and traded a daily band of $63,886 to $65,305 on July 31 with daily volume near $26.6 billion.

Here's what matters for anyone running leverage. XWIN Research Japan reported the taker buy-sell ratio near 1.0 — balanced aggression — with a mild short bias in perpetuals. Yet funding rates stayed positive. That combination tells you longs are still paying the carry while sellers aren't capitulating. When positive funding meets a TD Sequential sell trigger and a historically weak month, the liquidation cascade risk is real, not theoretical.

The Macro Hand: ETF Bid Meets a Hawkish Split

Don't ignore the bid underneath the tape. SoSoValue data showed BlackRock's IBIT took in $183.4 million — nearly four-fifths of Thursday's $233.1 million total — with Bitwise adding $20.7 million and Fidelity $15.5 million. Weekly net inflows hit $203.84 million before Friday's session, and July's monthly tally reached $437.8 million after two weak months for fund demand.

But the Federal Reserve isn't doing the long side any favors. The FOMC held rates at 3.5%–3.75% on July 29 with a 9-3 vote, and three officials — Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan — actually wanted a quarter-point hike. Inflation remains above the 2% target, and the statement cited energy-linked supply shocks plus Middle East uncertainty. A hawkish dissent is not the macro backdrop to be levered long into.

Invalidation: Where This Trade Dies

Trade it as a defensive short, not a conviction call. Entry triggers off a clean rejection from the $65,300–$65,700 supply zone; a stop hunt above $66,000 followed by a daily close kills the thesis. Targets: first take-profit into the $64,000 psychological support, then the $62,000–$63,000 demand band where XWIN noted sellers repeatedly failed to push price through.

The setup is wrong if BTC reclaims $65,700 on heavy volume and holds it for a daily close. Until that happens, the TD Sequential trigger, the lowest funding rates since 2023, and August's seasonal weakness stack the odds against the long side. Capital preservation first — chase the breakout later.