Are Bitcoin and Altcoins Entering a New Bull Market? CryptoQuant Data Analysis
a 23% weekly gain, the largest since March 2023, reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025. CryptoQuant analysts now flag early-phase bull indicators across both BTC and the altcoin complex.
On-chain metrics converge on a structural shift from distribution to accumulation.
BTC Cycle Architecture
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reports the bull-bear market indicator has transitioned into early bull phase. A separate CryptoQuant assessment identifies the first material trend change since May: BTC has emerged from selling pressure and re-entered the short-term holder cost basis at $67,000–$69,000.
Key data points:
- 200-day MA reclaimed: first time since November 2025
- Weekly return: +23%
- Short-term holder cost basis: $67K–$69K
- Critical support zone: $67K–$69K
- Annual investor price reference: ~$104,800
- Long-term holder distribution: limited relative to prior cycles
Structural reversal confirmation logic: BTC retests the $67K–$69K zone, holds support, then advances toward the ~$104,800 annual investor price level. Violation of support invalidates the setup.
Altcoin Capital Velocity
Darkfost identifies early altcoin season signals. Total2, the aggregate crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, reached $1 trillion after approximately $215 billion in capital inflows between August 19 and August 22. The 200-day MA breadth metric shifted sharply: from 80–85% of Binance-listed altcoins trading below the average to 56% above it.
- Total2 market cap: $1T
- Capital inflow window: Aug 19–22
- 200-day MA breadth: 80–85% below → 56% above
- Market state: approaching overbought
A separate on-chain signal, tracked by analyst Crypto Dan, shows the supply-in-profit and supply-in-loss ratio converging into a crossover pattern. Historically, this crossover preceded the 2015 and 2019 cycle bottoms and aligns with the four-year halving cycle framework. The indicator functions as a lagging signal; false prints have occurred in prior cycles.
Risk Parameters
The velocity of the move elevates correction probability. Altcoin basket readings approach overbought territory. Confirmation depends on BTC holding the $67K–$69K zone and testing the ~$104,800 annual investor price level. Breakdown below short-term holder cost basis invalidates the current structural thesis.
Monitor variables:
- $67K–$69K support retest behavior
- Total2 200-day MA breadth stability
- Long-term holder spending distribution delta vs historical mean
- Profit/loss crossover persistence across subsequent weekly closes